Cocoa Price Developments in the Global Market

In the international market, cocoa has been one of the agricultural commodities with strong price volatility in recent years. In 2024, cocoa prices reached a record level of more than 12,000 USD per ton, mainly due to reduced production in West African countries such as Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together account for over 60% of the world’s cocoa supply.

However, by 2026, global cocoa prices have shown signs of decline as supply gradually improves. As of early March 2026, cocoa prices on international commodity exchanges are fluctuating around 3,000 USD per ton.

This adjustment is believed to be the result of expectations of recovering production and slower demand growth following the sharp price surge in previous years.

Factors Affecting Cocoa Prices

The price of dried cocoa beans is influenced by many factors, including:

1. Global Supply
West African countries such as Ghana and Ivory Coast produce the majority of the world’s cocoa. When production in these regions declines due to weather conditions, pests, or labor shortages, cocoa prices tend to increase significantly.

2. Demand from the Chocolate Industry
Cocoa is the primary raw material for chocolate production. Increasing demand in Europe, the United States, and Asia has helped maintain relatively high cocoa prices for many years.

3. Production and Logistics Costs
Costs for fertilizers, labor, transportation, and energy also directly affect cocoa production costs and market prices.

4. Commodity Market Speculation
Cocoa is traded on international commodity exchanges, so prices can also be influenced by investment flows and market sentiment.

Outlook for the Cocoa Market

In the coming years, many experts predict that cocoa prices may stabilize at levels higher than those seen before 2023, although short-term adjustments are still likely due to supply fluctuations. Some forecasts suggest that cocoa prices may fluctuate between 4,500 and 7,000 USD per ton in 2026, depending on production conditions and global demand.

For Vietnam, cocoa is considered a crop with strong development potential, especially in the Central Highlands and Southeast regions. Improving bean quality, applying proper fermentation processes, and developing value-added processing chains will help increase the value of Vietnam’s cocoa industry.

The current price of dried cocoa beans remains relatively favorable compared to previous years, even though the market is undergoing adjustments after reaching peak levels. With global chocolate demand continuing to grow, cocoa remains an agricultural product with strong economic potential. For cocoa farmers, focusing on bean quality, fermentation standards, and cooperation with processing enterprises will be key factors in increasing value and stabilizing market opportunities.